THE EARTH AS A SAUNA

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THE EARTH AS A SAUNA

The Northern Hemisphere can be pretty frosty this time of year. But the depths of December in Baudette, Minn., or Friendship, Maine, can be deceiving. In fact, 2014 is on pace to at least tie for the warmest year in recorded history, according to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization.

WMO data shows the global average temperature from January through October was 1.03 degrees F. above the average of the temperatures of 1961 through 1990, which scientists use as a baseline. That’s the same as the reigning hottest year of 2010.

Much of this spike is due to higher-than-average ocean surface temperatures, according to the WMO. If those temperatures persisted in November and December – and it’s likely they did – then 2014 will enter the books as the hottest year on record.

“The provisional information for 2014 means that 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud in early December. “There is no standstill in global warming.”

The scientific consensus is that this trend is man-made. The concentration in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas, is now 42 percent higher than it was at the start of the Industrial Revolution.

This sets the stage for coming climate negotiations. In Paris at the end of next year, world representatives are supposed to meet to hammer out a sweeping new agreement on greenhouse gas limits.

The US, the European Union, and China have all pledged new restrictions of their own. But India, Russia, Japan, and some other big nations haven’t. How this plays out – and whether the US, the EU, and China can translate their commitments into action – may develop into one of the biggest geopolitical stories of 2015.